Risk-acceptant revisionist countries like China seek to make faits accomplis, or change facts on the ground in their favor. In Phase 0, militaries seek to improve capabilities should a hot war start. Phase 0 is before the shooting starts, but at a heightened state of tension. We are currently and officially in Phase 0 of a potential hot war in the Western Pacific. Per military planning methods, the ex poste column is further divided into phases, more specifically, Phase 0 and Phase 1 of a potential war. This column seeks to sweep the parameter space of potential US counter-strategies - they are not all recommended, but they do show the extraordinary risks that China is subjecting itself to by seeking to change the status quo in the South China Sea through its dangerous new strategies and technical innovations. The final column is possible counter-innovations or strategies, typically by the US. It is useful to think about innovation in terms of a simple matrix, with innovations as rows, and columns as before (ex ante) and after (ex poste) conditions. China occupied a sand bar near the Philippines island of Pagasa, in the Philippine exclusive economic zone, or EEZ, and Chinese boats purposefully rammed and sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat in the Paracel Islands of the north west SCS, islands that both China and Vietnam claim.Īn Innovation Matrix: Before, After, and Counters USPACOM also recently revealed that China’s military activity in the SCS rose over the past year. On March 4 and March 7, 2019, USPACOM, which is the Asian equivalent of CENTCOM and for which I used to work, sent nuclear-capable B-52 bombers over the SCS, including one flight revealed today. In a short year since the book was published, the South China Sea conflict has heated up. This presentation, however, will focus on how China is innovating in the South China Sea on technological and strategic levels. Naval Institute Press with the title – Great Powers, Grand Strategies: the New Game in the SCS, and my next book, on the strategy of brinkmanship. The full presentation is a combination of material from a book I edited that was published last year by the U.S. He is not here, but he has been a mentor on the issues I’m covering, and assisted with comments to this presentation. I want to thank my good friend US Navy Captain James Fanell, who was Director of Intelligence for the US Pacific Fleet. Thanks very much for the invitation to speak today, and to all the members of the audience. This article is a slight revision of a talk given on March 13, 2019, in New York City. Publisher of the Journal of Political Risk The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (Navy) (PLA(N) Luang II class guided-missile destroyer Xian (153) arrives at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam for Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC), 2016.
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